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Browse the failure-mode index

196 real negative results, null findings, and replication failures in Economics, Econometrics and Finance. Search the index →

WASTE indexes published research — it does not host or republish full papers. Each entry is a metadata record compiled from open scholarly databases; the abstract is shown in full only where the paper is openly licensed, otherwise a short excerpt under fair use. Classifications are automated and approximate.

Negative / Null Result ReportOpen accessEconomics, Econometrics and Finance

Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Crude Oil and Stock Markets in the US: A Time-Varying Analysis

Lu Liu, En‐Ze Wang, Chien‐Chiang Lee · 2020 · Energy RESEARCH LETTERS

This research explores the interaction among the COVID-19 pandemic, crude oil market and stock market in the U.S. by utilizing a time-varying parameter vector autoregression (TVP-VAR) model. Our results indicate that there is a negative connection between crude oil returns and stock returns. Interestingly, contrary to our intuition, we find that the COVID-19 pandemic cannot exert a negative effect but has a statistically significantly positive effect on crude oil returns and stock returns.

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Negative / Null Result ReportOpen accessEconomics, Econometrics and Finance

New Evidence on the Aftermath of Financial Crises in Advanced Countries

Christina Romer, David Romer · 2017 · American Economic Review

This paper examines the aftermath of postwar financial crises in advanced countries. We construct a new semiannual series on financial distress in 24 OECD countries for the period 1967–2012. The series is based on assessments of the health…

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Negative / Null Result ReportOpen accessEconomics, Econometrics and Finance

Extending health insurance to the poor in India: An impact evaluation of Rashtriya Swasthya Bima Yojana on out of pocket spending for healthcare

Anup Karan, Winnie Yip, Ajay Mahal · 2017 · Social Science & Medicine

India launched the 'Rashtriya Swasthya Bima Yojana' (RSBY) health insurance scheme for the poor in 2008. Utilising 3 waves (1999-2000, 2004-05 and 2011-12) of household level data from nationally representative surveys of the National Sample Survey Organisation (NSSO) (N = 346,615) and district level RSBY administrative data on enrolment, we estimated causal effects of RSBY on out-of-pocket expenditure. Using 'difference-in-differences' methods on households in matched districts we find that RSBY did not affect the likelihood of inpatient out-of-pocket spending, the level of inpatient out of p

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Negative / Null Result ReportOpen accessEconomics, Econometrics and Finance

The TIPS‐Treasury Bond Puzzle

Matthias Fleckenstein, Francis A. Longstaff, Hanno Lustig · 2013 · The Journal of Finance

ABSTRACT We show that the price of a Treasury bond and an inflation‐swapped Treasury Inflation‐Protected Securities (TIPS) issue exactly replicating the cash flows of the Treasury bond can differ by more than $20 per $100 notional.…

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Negative / Null Result ReportOpen accessEconomics, Econometrics and Finance

Bank Financing for SMEs: Evidence Across Countries and Bank Ownership Types

Thorsten Beck, Asli Demirgüç‐Kunt, María Soledad Martínez Pería · 2010 · Journal of Financial Services Research

Using data for 91 large banks from 45 countries, this paper finds that foreign, domestic private, and government-owned banks use different lending technologies and organizational structures for SME financing. The extent, type, and pricing…

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Negative / Null Result ReportOpen accessEconomics, Econometrics and Finance

Decision Making Under the Gambler’s Fallacy: Evidence from Asylum Judges, Loan Officers, and Baseball Umpires*

Daniel L. Chen, Tobias J. Moskowitz, Kelly Shue · 2016 · The Quarterly Journal of Economics

Abstract We find consistent evidence of negative autocorrelation in decision making that is unrelated to the merits of the cases considered in three separate high-stakes field settings: refugee asylum court decisions, loan application…

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Negative / Null Result ReportOpen accessEconomics, Econometrics and Finance

Evaluating State and Local Business Incentives

Cailin Slattery, Owen Zidar · 2020 · The Journal of Economic Perspectives

This essay describes and evaluates state and local business tax incentives in the United States. In 2014, states spent between $5 and $216 per capita on incentives for firms in the form of firm-specific subsidies and general tax credits,…

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Negative / Null Result ReportOpen accessEconomics, Econometrics and Finance

Firms’ knowledge search and local knowledge externalities in innovation performance

Stephen Roper, James H. Love, Karen Bonner · 2016 · Research Policy

We use an augmented version of the UK Innovation Surveys 4–7 to explore firm-level and local area openness externalities on firms’ innovation performance. We find strong evidence of the value of external knowledge acquisition both through interactive collaboration and non-interactive contacts such as demonstration effects, copying or reverse engineering. Levels of knowledge search activity remain well below the private optimum, however, due perhaps to informational market failures. We also find strong positive externalities of openness resulting from the intensity of local interactive knowledg

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Negative / Null Result ReportOpen accessEconomics, Econometrics and Finance

How Does Risk Selection Respond to Risk Adjustment? New Evidence from the Medicare Advantage Program

Jason Brown, Mark Duggan, Ilyana Kuziemko et al. · 2014 · American Economic Review

To combat adverse selection, governments increasingly base payments to health plans and providers on enrollees’ scores from risk-adjustment formulae. In 2004, Medicare began to risk-adjust capitation payments to private Medicare Advantage…

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Negative / Null Result ReportEconomics, Econometrics and Finance

Democracy, War, and Wealth: Lessons from Two Centuries of Inheritance Taxation

Kenneth F. Scheve, David Stasavage · 2012 · American Political Science Review

In this article we use an original data set to provide the first empirical analysis of the political economy of inherited wealth taxation that covers a significant number of countries and a long time frame (1816–2000). Our goal is to…

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Negative / Null Result ReportOpen accessEconomics, Econometrics and Finance

International Shocks, Variable Markups, and Domestic Prices

Mary Amiti, Oleg Itskhoki, Jozef Konings · 2019 · The Review of Economic Studies

Abstract How strong are strategic complementarities in price setting across firms? In this article, we provide a direct empirical estimate of firms’ price responses to changes in competitor prices. We develop a general theoretical…

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Negative / Null Result ReportEconomics, Econometrics and Finance

Do Weather-Induced Moods Affect the Processing of Earnings News?

ED DEHAAN, Joshua Madsen, Joseph D. Piotroski · 2016 · Journal of Accounting Research

We investigate whether unpleasant environmental conditions affect stock market participants’ responses to information events. We draw from psychology research to develop a new prediction that weather-induced negative moods reduce market…

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Negative / Null Result ReportOpen accessEconomics, Econometrics and Finance

The Impact of Medicaid on Labor Market Activity and Program Participation: Evidence from the Oregon Health Insurance Experiment

Katherine Baicker, Amy Finkelstein, Jae Song et al. · 2014 · American Economic Review

In 2008, a group of uninsured low-income adults in Oregon was selected by lottery for the chance to apply for Medicaid. Using this randomized design and 2009 administrative data, we find no significant effect of Medicaid on employment or…

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Negative / Null Result ReportOpen accessEconomics, Econometrics and Finance

Migration and Wage Effects of Taxing Top Earners: Evidence from the Foreigners’ Tax Scheme in Denmark*

Henrik Kleven, Camille Landais, Emmanuel Saez et al. · 2013 · The Quarterly Journal of Economics

Abstract This article analyzes the effects of income taxation on the international migration and earnings of top earners using a Danish preferential foreigner tax scheme and population-wide Danish administrative data. This scheme,…

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Negative / Null Result ReportOpen accessEconomics, Econometrics and Finance

Temporal Stability of Time Preferences

Stephan Meier, Charles Sprenger · 2014 · The Review of Economics and Statistics

The preferences assumed to govern intertemporal trade-offs are generally considered to be stable economic primitives, though evidence on this stability is notably lacking. We present evidence from a large field study conducted over two…

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Negative / Null Result ReportEconomics, Econometrics and Finance

EFFECTS OF INDEX‐FUND INVESTING ON COMMODITY FUTURES PRICES

James D. Hamilton, Jing Cynthia Wu · 2015 · International Economic Review

We develop a simple model of futures arbitrage that implies that if purchases by commodity index funds influence futures prices, then the notional positions of the index investors should help predict excess returns in these contracts. We…

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Negative / Null Result ReportOpen accessEconomics, Econometrics and Finance

Rent-sharing, Holdup, and Wages: Evidence from Matched Panel Data

David Card, Francesco Devicienti, Agata Maida · 2013 · The Review of Economic Studies

Rent-sharing by workers can reduce the incentives for investment if some of the returns to sunk capital are captured in higher wages. We propose a simple measure of this "holdup" effect based on the size of the wage offset for…

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Negative / Null Result ReportEconomics, Econometrics and Finance

Efficient market hypothesis in European stock markets

María Rosa Borges · 2010 · European Journal of Finance

This paper reports the results of tests on the weak-form market efficiency applied to stock market indexes of UK, France, Germany, Spain, Greece and Portugal, from January 1993 to December 2007. We use a runs test, and joint variance ratio…

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Negative / Null Result ReportEconomics, Econometrics and Finance

Portfolio Manager Compensation in the U.S. Mutual Fund Industry

Linlin Ma, Yuehua Tang, Juan-Pedro Gómez · 2018 · The Journal of Finance

ABSTRACT We study compensation contracts of individual portfolio managers using hand‐collected data of over 4,500 U.S. mutual funds. Variations in the compensation structures are broadly consistent with an optimal contracting equilibrium.…

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Negative / Null Result ReportOpen accessEconomics, Econometrics and Finance

Dropping the Books and Working Off the Books

Rita Cappariello, Roberta Zizza · 2010 · Labour

Abstract The paper empirically tests the relationship between underground labour and schooling achievement for Italy, a country ranking badly in both respects when compared with other high‐income economies, with a marked duality between…

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Negative / Null Result ReportOpen accessEconomics, Econometrics and Finance

Endogenous Production Networks

Daron Acemoğlu, Pablo Azar · 2020 · Econometrica

We develop a tractable model of endogenous production networks. Each one of a number of products can be produced by combining labor and an endogenous subset of the other products as inputs. Different combinations of inputs generate…

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Negative / Null Result ReportEconomics, Econometrics and Finance

Testing Factor-Model Explanations of Market Anomalies

Kent Daniel · 2012 · Critical Finance Review

A set of recent papers attempts to explain the size and book-to-market anomalies with conditional CAPM or CCAPM models with economically motivated conditioning variables, or with factor models with economically motivated factors. The tests…

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Negative / Null Result ReportOpen accessEconomics, Econometrics and Finance

Social security health insurance for the informal sector in Nicaragua: a randomized evaluation

Rebecca Thornton, Laurel Hatt, Erica M. Field et al. · 2010 · Health Economics

This article presents the results from an experimental evaluation of a voluntary health insurance program for informal sector workers in Nicaragua. Costs of the premiums as well as enrollment location were randomly allocated. Overall,…

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Negative / Null Result ReportOpen accessEconomics, Econometrics and Finance

Uncertainty Shocks as Second-Moment News Shocks

David Berger, Ian Dew-Becker, Stefano Giglio · 2019 · The Review of Economic Studies

Abstract We provide evidence on the relationship between aggregate uncertainty and the macroeconomy. Identifying uncertainty shocks using methods from the news shocks literature, the analysis finds that innovations in realized stock market…

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Negative / Null Result ReportEconomics, Econometrics and Finance

Aggregate Idiosyncratic Volatility

Geert Bekaert, Robert J. Hodrick, Xiaoyan Zhang · 2012 · Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis

Abstract We examine aggregate idiosyncratic volatility in 23 developed equity markets, measured using various methodologies. We find no evidence of upward trends after extending the sample to 2008. Instead, idiosyncratic volatility is well…

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Negative / Null Result ReportEconomics, Econometrics and Finance

Does Agriculture Really Matter for Economic Growth in Developing Countries?

Titus O. Awokuse, Ruizhi Xie · 2014 · Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d agroeconomie

This paper revisits the debate on the role of agriculture in promoting economic growth in a selection of nine developing countries. We investigated the causal linkages between agriculture and gross domestic product growth with the aid of…

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Negative / Null Result ReportEconomics, Econometrics and Finance

Long-Run Health Impacts of Income Shocks: Wine and Phylloxera in Nineteenth-Century France

Abhijit Banerjee, Esther Duflo, Gilles Postel‐Vinay et al. · 2010 · The Review of Economics and Statistics

Between 1863 and 1890, phylloxera destroyed 40% of French vineyards. Using the regional variation in the timing of this shock, we identify and examine the effects on adult height, health, and life expectancy of children born in the years…

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Negative / Null Result ReportEconomics, Econometrics and Finance

Changing Business Dynamism and Productivity: Shocks versus Responsiveness

Ryan A. Decker, John Haltiwanger, Ron S. Jarmin et al. · 2020 · American Economic Review

The pace of job reallocation has declined in the United States in recent decades. We draw insight from canonical models of business dynamics in which reallocation can decline due to (i ) lower dis persion of idiosyncratic shocks faced by…

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