Price Policy, Agrarian Structure, and Rural Welfare: An ARDL Analysis of Rice Governance and Farmer Exchange Rates in Indonesia
Punguan Hutagalung; Surya Abadi Sembiring; Iskandarini Iskandarini · 2026 · Baileo
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The study found no significant effect — useful as a negative control or null benchmark for your own design.
Abstract
This study investigates the impact of the Government Purchase Price (HPP) policy and fertilizer subsidies on rice production and farmer welfare, measured by the Farmer Exchange Rate (NTP), within the framework of agrarian governance in Indonesia. It examines both short-run and long-run effects while situating these policies within broader state intervention dynamics. A quantitative approach is employed using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model on monthly time-series data from January 2020 to December 2024, complemented by a qualitative review of policy regulations. The findings rev
Abstract by Punguan Hutagalung; Surya Abadi Sembiring; Iskandarini Iskandarini, Baileo (2026) — licensed CC BY 4.0.
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Metadata source: DOAJ · DOI 10.30598/baileofisipvol3iss3pp634-655